Cuomo Leads Paladino by 19 Percentage Points Among Likely Voters
In the race for New York governor, Democrat Andrew Cuomo receives the support of 52% oflikely voters statewide compared with 33% for Republican Carl Paladino. Rick Lazio, on theConservative line, garners the support of 9% of likely voters. 6% are unsure.
Not surprisingly, Cuomo receives the backing of 81% of Democratic voters who are likely tocast their ballot on Election Day. However, he is also buoyed by a notable proportion oflikely Republican voters — 19%. Paladino garners the support of more than six in tenRepublicans who are likely to vote — 63%, but only 11% of likely Democratic voters.
Looking at likely voters who are not enrolled in any party, Cuomo receives 44% to 33% whoplan to cast their ballot for Paladino. Lazio receives the support of 14% of likely nonenrolledvoters, 11% of the likely Republican vote, and 4% of Democrats who are likely tovote.
Many likely voters who consider themselves supporters of the Tea Party back Paladino.69% report this to be the case while 14% back Lazio, and 13% support Cuomo. 4% areunsure.
"Andrew Cuomo is ahead, and right now, this is not a close race,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff,Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “He is being bolstered by theLazio factor, but he is just above 50% among likely voters, and you can't overlook theenthusiasm Republicans are bringing to this election cycle."
Regionally, Cuomo runs best in New York City followed by the New York City suburbs. Inthe Big Apple, 65% of likely voters say they plan to vote for Cuomo while 23% report theywill cast their ballot for Paladino. Lazio receives the support of just 6%. Moving to thesuburbs, Cuomo garners a majority of likely voters in this region — 52% — while Paladinoand Lazio net 30% and 16%, respectively. Upstate, Cuomo and Paladino receive the samesupport. Both Cuomo and Paladino take 43% of likely upstate voters. Just 7% of likelyupstate voters say they will cast their ballot for Lazio. 7% are also unsure.
When likely voters who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate are thrown into themix, Cuomo receives 53% of the vote compared with Paladino’s 34%. Lazio takes 10%,and 3% remain unsure.
Looking at the overall electorate, 55% of registered voters statewide support Cuomo while29% say they back Paladino. Lazio receives the nod from just 10% of New York registeredvoters. 6% are unsure.
Cuomo and Paladino with Strong Support
Nearly six in ten likely voters — 59% — report they strongly support their choice for governorwhile more than one-fourth — 28% — somewhat support their candidate. 12% say theymight vote differently.
Among likely voters who report they will back Andrew Cuomo for governor, 64% state theystrongly support him, and 25% say they somewhat support him. 10%, on the other hand,might vote differently come Election Day.
Paladino’s supporters share a similar level of support. Looking at likely voters who supportPaladino, 61% firmly back him, and 32% somewhat support him. 7% might change theirminds and vote differently.
Rick Lazio’s supporters aren’t as intense in their level of support. Only 30% of likely voterswho support Lazio report they are unwavering in their support while 28% are somewhatbehind him. 40% may alter their decision before Election Day and choose anothercandidate.
About Two-thirds For Candidate
When asked whether they selected their respective candidate because they are for him oragainst his opponents, 66% of likely voters say they are for their respective candidate while32% report they are against the others. 2% are unsure.
While more than seven in ten Cuomo supporters — 72% — choose him because they are forhim, more than a quarter of his backers — 26% — say they support Cuomo because they areagainst Paladino and Lazio. When compared with Cuomo supporters, fewer Paladinobackers report they are voting for their candidate rather than against the other candidatesfor governor. 58% say they are for Paladino while 39% support him because they don’twant Cuomo or Lazio to win. Although a majority of likely voters who plan to support Lazio — 53% — are backing him because they think he is the best candidate, 45% are doing sobecause they are against his opponents.
The Enthusiasm Factor: Majority of Republicans Express Highest EnthusiasmAre registered voters in New York State enthusiastic about voting this November? 38%report they are very enthusiastic.
Republicans are expressing more enthusiasm about casting their ballot this fall than areDemocrats. 51% of registered Republican voters say they are very enthusiastic. Thiscompares with 34% of Democratic voters and 31% of non-enrolled voters who report thesame.
Among registered voters who back Paladino — 58% — are very enthusiastic . This compareswith 30% of Cuomo’s supporters and 32% of Lazio’s backers who share this degree ofexcitement.
Voters Dissatisfied with Albany… Want a New Direction for the State
Voters are displeased with the way state government in Albany is run. More than seven inten registered voters statewide — 72% — believe the way things are run need major changeswhile 13% think state government is broken and beyond repair. 15% are more forgiving andreport that state government’s modus operandi needs minor changes. Less than 1% of theelectorate say no changes are needed.
Little has changed on this question since Marist last asked it in May. At that time, seven inten voters — 70% — believed major changes were needed in Albany, and 16% said Albanywas beyond repair. 13% thought minor changes needed to be applied, and 1% stated allwas well with how Albany was being run.
With voters expressing such a high level of dissatisfaction with state government, it’sprobably little surprise that 73% of registered voters think the state needs to be re-directed.24%, however, believe New York is moving in the right direction. 3% are unsure.When Marist last asked voters in New York about the direction of the state, a similarproportion — 72% — thought the state needed a new course while 22% said it was on theright path. 6%, at the time, were unsure.
Out with the Old… Approval Rating for Paterson Stands at 19%
Voters’ disapproval of Governor David Paterson remains evident. Currently, about one-fifthof registered voters in New York State — 19% — think Paterson is doing either an excellentor good job in office. This includes 3% who report he is doing an excellent job and 16% whosay he is doing a good one. 40% rate the job Paterson is doing as governor as fair while thesame proportion — 40% — think he is performing poorly. 1% are unsure.
In Marist’s May survey, 19% gave Paterson high marks, and 38% rated his job performanceas fair. About four in ten — 41% — rated Paterson poorly. 2% were unsure.
Dip In Cuomo Approval Rating
There has been a decline in New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s jobapproval rating due to a drop in the proportions of registered Republican voters and nonenrolledvoters who now approve of
his performance in office.
Among registered voters, 56% say Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.Included here are 18% who think he is doing an excellent job and 38% who believe he isdoing a good one. 29% rate Cuomo as fair while just 13% call his performance poor. 2%are unsure.
In Marist’s May survey, 64% gave Cuomo a thumbs-up, 27% said he was doing a fair job,and only 6% thought he performed poorly. 3% were unsure.
While Cuomo’s Democratic base is firm, fewer Republicans and non-enrolled voters givehim a thumbs-up. 36% of Republican voters and 55% of non-enrolled voters currently thinkCuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office. This compares with 58% and 63%,respectively, who thought so in May. 70% of Democrats now give Cuomo high marks whilethe same proportion — 70% — did so four months ago.
Status Quo for Comptroller DiNapoli
About one-third of registered voters statewide — 33% — think New York State ComptrollerTom DiNapoli is doing either an excellent or good job in office. Included here are 4% whosay DiNapoli is doing an excellent job and 29% who believe he is doing a good job. 33%report he is doing a fair job while 13% think he is performing poorly. A notable proportion ofvoters — 21% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate DiNapoli.
When Marist last asked New York State voters about Tom DiNapoli’s job performance, 29%gave the comptroller high marks, 34% rated his performance as fair, and 9% thought he wasdoing a poor job. More than one-fourth — 28% — were unsure how to rate him.
Obama Approval Rating Falls to 47%
President Barack Obama’s approval rating has dropped in New York State. Currently, 47%of registered voters in the state say the president is doing either an excellent or good job inoffice. This includes 16% who report Mr. Obama is doing an excellent job and 31% whothink he is doing a good job. 22% say the president’s job performance is fair while 31%believe he is performing poorly. Fewer than 1% are unsure.
In Marist’s May survey, a majority — 55% — approved of how the president was doing inoffice while 22% rated his job performance as fair. 23% reported he was doing a subparjob. Fewer than 1% were unsure.
The change has occurred among Republicans and non-enrolled voters. While 17% ofRepublicans and 41% of voters not enrolled in any party currently believe the president isdoing either an excellent or good job in office, 29% of the statewide GOP and a majority ofnon-enrolled voters — 52% — said the same four months ago.