Insight on Politics: Where Are We? – An Analysis of The Republican Nominating Process So Far By MIKE EDELMAN

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EDITOR'S NOTE: This is a political analysis on the election process that will impact the nation. Stay on topic. A digression of any kind that is considered by this ediotr to be personally offensive wil be expunged from the record and the IP address will lose the ability to log on =to this site again. The issue is the politics, not people. Stay on topic. We may all learn something in the process. Thank you for your understanding. Kindly, Hezi Aris

I want to replace Barack Obama.

A lovely guy, who is very smart, with a terrific  family, but is over his head. He was elected with no management, business, or economic experience, whatsoever, in a time when the economy was in the worst shape since the great depression. In order to replace this president, Republicans must nominate someone who can garner 270 electoral votes and win in those traditional swing states that determine presidential elections; states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico.

Our choices have narrowed down to Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Some Republican pundits are still hoping for Mitch Daniels, the governor of  Indiana, changing his mind and entering the race. It will be Daniels who has been designated to give the GOP response to the President’s State of the Union address. Like it or not, Daniels is not getting into the race at this late date,; and there is no such thing as the possibility of a “brokered” convention because the nomination will be decided by the primaries and caucuses that take place between now and the Convention. So what then are our choices.

Let’s start with Mitt Romney. He is the former governor of a blue state and perceived as a slightly to the right of center establishment Republican masquerading as an ultra conservative candidate. Romney has the money and the ground organization to go all the way to the convention. He is on the ballot in every single primary and caucus state. Romney’s strengths are that business is his business.  His ownership of Bain Capital, a private equity firm whose business is to acquire  companies for the purpose of turning them around in whatever way is most efficient.  He has been roundly criticized even by fellow Republican candidates, who are supposedly  free market advocates for what they say is stripping those companies and selling off those parts which are not profitable and in the process they say, destroying jobs. 

Romney has become very wealthy in the process but rather than defending his work ethic and his business acumen he has been playing defense on the issue of his tax returns, which during the South Carolina debate, he failed to agree to immediately release. So it is fair to say that because of his business success, because of his stewardship of a very liberal state, and because of his abiding by the Morman religion, he has a problem connecting with the base of the party, which in large part are comprised of “Tea Party” Evangelical Christians; average working men and women who are suffering lost jobs, lost houses, and lost retirements.

Newt Gingrich, on the other hand presents himself as the former controversial Speaker of the House who thinks in terms of “big ideas.” He touts his experience as a job creator, while he was speaker and Bill Clinton was president, and touts himself as a true Reagan Conservative.  He is extremely bright, a policy wonk of the highest order, and by far the better debater, as he demonstrated in the last  South Carolina debate where he took on the “liberal media” which inquired about the charges his second wife had made in an ABC interview where she claimed that Gingrich had requested an open marriage. Gingrich makes the point over and over that in a debate with President Obama he would have the upper hand based on his debate performances to date, and his win in South Carolina after Romney had the lead going into the election as an attestation to his ability to marshall and rev up the Conservative base.  

There is no question that Gingrich as the nominee would be the more energetic, red meat candidate. There is no question that he would be inspirational to those on the right who want to “fight” the influence of the federal government’s intrusion into our lives, and who want to vent their anger for the economic meltdown that we are all experiencing. But the real question is whether Newt Gingrich can be the leader of the free world in a credible and reliable way.  

At question is whether he has the temperament and judgment to be the president.  The issue is whether this nation can risk handing over the nuclear keys to someone with Gingrich’s track record.

To answer that question we have to look at the facts. Virtually everyone who worked with or for Gingrich when he was Speaker of the House has described him to be erratic, unreliable, and lacking the leadership skills to remain as speaker. They in fact acted in concert to remove him from that post. Well-known Conservatives like Senator Tom Coburn and Haley Barbour have stated publicly that Gingrich has no business being entrusted with the Oval office. He is viewed as a chaotic and mercurial; a character with an idea a minute, but with no idea how to stick to any one of them long enough to implement it.

What this nation clearly  needs is a steady hand. We need to have someone who is able to work with both parties to accomplish what President Obama has not. 

We are not voting for a debater in chief. We should not be nominating the person who can entertain us the most during the election, but the person who we have confidence in to lead us out of the morass we are in; one which has resulted from out of control spending, reckless risk taking by some financial institutions, and a housing bubble that popped four years ago, and is still on life support.  We cannot afford to be surprised in September that Gingrich’s reprimand by the House was for unethical conduct, that we have never been told about in full because it remains a matter of private record, kept under wraps by the House of Representatives. 

Republicans are going to have a difficult time removing an incumbent President who will spend a billion plus dollars on his campaign .  If Gingrich is the candidate, you bank on women being appalled at the way he has treated his two former wives. Real Conservatives like Joe Scarborough will continue to point out that Gingrich is not and never has been “Conservative.” Even if you can make an argument that Romney has flip-flopped on the individual mandate, Gingrich supported it for 20 years; or cap and trade, which Newt also supported. It does not translate into Gingrich being regarded as a true conservative. What Gingrich presently represents is the Conservative Evangelical base revolting against what they perceive as an establishment moderate Romney candidacy. Gingrich is able to take their anger, their frustration, and their resentment, of what they perceive as a liberal media, and in histrionic fashion, make those points in every debate he appears.  The base may love the performance but it will not play in the swing states necessary to get to 270 electoral votes. However you slice it Gingrich is unelectable regardless of what the Conservatives of South Carolina believed when they voted Saturday, January 21, 2012. His national  unfavorables are almost 60% His work for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for which he received $1.6 million will be impossible  to defend, as will the fact that he was the only Speaker in history to be formally  reprimanded by the House of Representatives.

Florida will be the crucial state because Romney must finally go on the offensive.  He has to make sure voters understand that Bain Capital was a positive for the average person creating thousands of jobs at businesses like Sports Authority and Staples, and that being a success in America is nothing to be ashamed of. If he does that successfully he wins the Florida Primary and gains back the momentum he lost once again. He has agreed, as of this writing, to release his tax returns, something he should have done months ago. Defending the fact that he paid 15% compared with what the rest of us paid, should not be a problem.  That’s the way the tax laws are written and calling for tax reform including abolishing the distinction between the rate on capital gains and ordinary income should be the rationale to lead us toward taxation  reform.

If Romney cannot make these basic arguments on his own behalf,  then he will not connect with the base making the prospect of a Gingrich candidacy more likely. If that should happen, the fear that will overtake Republican leaders across this nation, those who understand how a Gingrich candidacy would cost them the House of Representatives, as well as the Unites States Senate, will be palpable.

We already see William Kristol, a Fox News pundit and editor of the Weekly Standard  attempting to convince anyone who will listen to draft Mitch Daniels; something that is highly unlikely.  The discomfort that will pervade  party leaders of all stripes  with the prospect of a Gingrich candidacy will force an assault on his credibility, viability, and electability should he win Florida. So where are we? I will let you know after Florida on the 31st.

Mike Edelman is a political commentator and consultant based in Westchester County. He is a partner in the Worby Groner Edelman (www.wgelaw.com/) personal injury law firm.

 

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eHeziInsight on Politics: Where Are We? – An Analysis of The Republican Nominating Process So Far By MIKE EDELMAN

Comments 22

  1. have you nothing better to do..why don’t you sit down
    and write something that is meaningful..you seem
    to have a chip on your shoulder…not sure why..
    but you only diminish yourself when you engage in
    personal diatribe…

  2. third point
    Bar/Ag: we will see i assure you
    😉
    amazing!
    your diatribe of a political prediction has drawn nearly zero response.
    congratulations.

  3. Let’s start here:
    So shall we assume you post as “anon e independent” and are in fact Mr. Edelman, the author of this article?
    very interesting.
    Something I’m am sure either NY BAR or the AG would be interested in.
    So let’s go “anon e independent”
    Then “we” can follow up with answers to your question.

  4. Greg DePalma – Al Pirro – Mike Edelman – Zehy Jereis – Nick Spano – John Spencer – John Ardito – Sandy Annabi – Robert Persico – Anthony Mangone – Patsy Parello – Anthony Colavita – Roger Bombace – Guy Vellela – Jay Savino

  5. DUH!! Obama said that he had the ability to turn things around. He was going to turn rocks into bread and part the waters. Now he claims that he didn’t know how bad the problem was. Oh bull manure. Don’t pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining out.

  6. I love the way Republicans blame Obama for the mess we’re in and act as though the previous 8 years never happened. And they call liberals history revisionists. Newsflash: Obama will be reelected – partially because the Tea-GOP are a bunch of maniacal sycophants who are entirely out of the mainstream. And another thing – Obama has hardly governed as a socialist. Give me a break!

  7. This is a trend. The Journal News (in fact all of Gannett) has gone to Facebook log ins in order to comment. Have you noticed that the amount of comments on JN have dropped to roughly zero? I consider that to be constructive censorship.
    I agree that no one should be abusive to anyone else. We all can be rough on each other on YT, thats its point, but there are limits. However, when you are told what you can and cannot say, this has turned into the Journal News.

  8. Obama will be elected to a second term as the economy is slowly improving and will bring money to YO via cuomo, spano expressway of back door deals that we may never know!

  9. Hezi: Your ‘Editors Note” belies the Yonkers Tribune as the ‘home of the acid tounged blogger.’ You have stripped it from it’s place on your masthead. Now remove it. You are not the man you once were.

  10. since you claim to have been personally attacked
    on this site it would help us a great deal if you
    disclosed your identity…as for being a consultant
    you have no right to see my present client list whatsoever period…clearly i am not being paid
    by mr romney or mr gingrich so my comments on the
    primary can be debated but they cannot be attacked
    as “paid for by”….

  11. Right on! He threatens if you break his rules you will “lose your posting privileges.” He must think he’s a teacher talking to some 2nd. graders. He threatens that posters will not drag the Yonkers Tribune into the dumpster. I have a flash for him, he dragged it into the dumpster when he teamed up with the Westchester Guardian.

  12. This response is to Hezi’s Editorial note.
    It appears Hezi’s editorial standards have changed with no explanation. It also appears they have changed in coincidence with the New Year and the shift in administrative positions.
    This really begs the question Why?
    So Called “Protection”:
    I’ve been personally attacked on this site and I’ve never been afforded the protection of what Mr Sansone or Mr Edelman have been afforded.
    Interestingly I didn’t mind the attacks: they were baseless and meaningless.
    Having said this:
    Mr Sansone deserves scrutiny for his taking of taxpayer money, for his failure to complete grants in an appropriate manner, and in my opinion: for his failure to represent his employers; the property owners and merchants of the downtown.
    Yet Hezi turns a blind eye while he asks us to (vehemently) to bear witness to his articles.
    Hezi has been aware of this for several years.
    Yet he has been silent.
    Mr. Edelman needs to be taken to task.
    the constant reminder he is a “consultant” and yet he refuses to acknowledge who he is paid by.
    In my book: if you don’t announce where you make your money you are not a viable public adviser of any political situation..no matter how you spin it.
    According to Hezi’s own archival record Mr. Edelman has presented one defense after another regarding the dismal record of our previous Mayor.
    Yet he has never addressed the failures….and they are indeed major failures.
    And Hezi allows Mr. Edelman’s account as the “Record”
    So Hezi exactly who is this guy Edelman, who is Sansone and who have you become.
    While you state an “Editors Note” about political content….I assure you Mr. Aris: this is completely political.
    BTW: Is Edelman completely out of touch with the current political situation?
    Likely the most boring political analysis i have ever read.
    Perhaps Mr. Aris should re-read the declaration recording freedom of speech.
    Ban this at your own peril.

  13. When you objectively look at the candidates, Obama, Romney, Gingrich, the only reasonable conclusion is in my opinion is that they are all so flawed that none of them should be President. Obama is self evident, Mitt flip flops at the drop of a hat, and Newt is flat out crazy
    Sadly there are no other choices at the present time, hopefully that will change.
    I wish Jon Huntsman would get back in….

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