Perron Is Handicapping the French Presidential Election for the British Daily Express
By Dr. Louis Perron

Tribune Archives, Campaign Trail, Community, Culture, Europe, Governance, History, People, Political Analysis, Politics 1 Comment

Political Analysis

Political Analyst Dr. Louis Perron.

ZURICH, SWITZERLAND — January 2, 2022 — As the French will head to the polls later this year to elect their president, remember this: elections with an incumbent are foremost a referendum on the incumbent. Do you play him or trade him? That’s the choice for French voters and it is a consequential one. When voters vote for a challenger, they are merely expressing a wish. When voting for an incumbent, they render a verdict. In that sense, what matters most for Macron is how average French voters next spring will feel about the state of the country, the pandemic, and their own personal situation and livelihood. If they feel good, Macron should sail to a relatively easy reelection.

Looking at possible opponents in the runoff, I can’t help but feel that Macron should not completely abandon the left. If there is anything he can do that pleases them without antagonizing the right (some appointment, or signature speech), he should do it. He might need some left votes in the second round.

Valérie Pécresse. Photo by and courtesy of Facebook.

Emmanuel Macron. Photo by and courtesy of Wikipedia.

Speaking about the runoff, I think that Valérie Pécresse is a formidable candidate and could give Macron a run for the money. She runs the capital region and just won reelection there running a great campaign. She is someone who can integrate different sectors and therefore has large appeal. 

I handicapped the French presidential election in a piece for the British Daily Express. You can read it here.

Dr. Louis Perron is an internationally renowned scientist, consultant and TEDx speaker, and expert in winning elections. He has won dozens of election and referendum campaigns in various countries. He tweets out two takeaways about campaigns daily @dr_perron. 

Learn more via campaign analysis 

©  2021, Louis Perron

TribunePerron Is Handicapping the French Presidential Election for the British Daily Express
By Dr. Louis Perron

Comments 1

  1. I believe regarding the spring election for the French Presidency you may see a right wing candidate resonate with the Citizens of France. (Other than La’Pen .) Similar to candidate Trump in the year 2016. It probably won’t be enough, but will make the contest interesting. Macron’s predecessor I believe was awful and not up to that tough as nails position which will mark you’re place in history.

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