Dr. Gal Luft is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), a Washington-based think tank focusing on energy security.

In the five years since the discovery of the Tamar and Leviathan natural gas fields off the coast of Israel, the Israeli energy discourse has focused on questions like what to do with the gas, how much of it to export and to whom, and what the fairest distribution of profits would be among the gas partners, headed by Noble Energy and Delek Energy, and the Israeli public. But after years of delays and billions of dollars spent, a new and increasingly likely scenario should be considered – the premature – and tragic – death of the Israeli gas dream. I alluded to this option in an August 2013 article titled “Israel’s Zero Gas Game” in which I warned that Israel has become so busy dividing the pie that its leaders forgot it must first be baked and that due to the failure of the government to present a clear vision for the country’s energy sector, articulate the rights and responsibilities of foreign investors and most importantly set rules and stick to them, “the gas will be left in the ground and the startup nation will be more worthy of the title ‘shutdown nation’.” Perhaps that sounded crazy at the time. Today, with the decision of the Israeli Anti-Trust Authority to revoke an arrangement permitting Noble-Delek partners to develop Leviathan, declaring them a cartel – a move that will require the separation of Leviathan from Tamar and the sale of Leviathan to a new partnership, effectively postponing the development of Leviathan indefinitely – the scenario of “zero gas” – and perhaps even the withdrawal of Noble from Israel altogether – should be considered seriously.

The-development-of-the-Leviathan-natural-gas-field-has-been-postponed-indefinitely.

In deciding to enter Israel Noble has taken a huge financial, regulatory and geopolitical risk. However, the size of the discoveries, the potential of finding oil under the gas layers and the doubling of the company’s market capitalization made the move easy to justify to its shareholders. But the Texas company, the only international energy company that was willing to set foot in Israel, was welcomed with no red carpet. Instead it was ushered through a Via Dolorosa of bureaucratic torture which eliminated any chance for gas production before the end of 2018 – ten years from the beginning of exploration. A ten year lead time from discovery to production is a lot to ask of a publicly traded company which has to satisfy quarterly thinking and profit hungry shareholders. But in light of Noble’s recent stock performance, dropping from $80 in the summer to $50 today, the decision of the Israeli government provides an impetus to the company’s leadership, not to mention the new CEO David Stover, to reconsider the commitment to Israel and begin to seek greener pastures.

The Israeli government’s ruling has huge implications for the future of the region as it means that at best the supply of gas from Leviathan will be delayed into the 2020s. At worst it will not happen at all. The government’s concern about a gas monopoly is a legitimate one, especially during an election campaign when issues of cost of living dominate the local political discourse. But its hopes that the hot potato called Leviathan can somehow be sold to new partners require a lot of faith. There are many people with money who may be tempted to buy into a partnership in a 22 trillion cubic feet (tcf) field, but owning a stake in a gas field without an operator at hand is like owning a gold mine on the moon. There are very few oil and gas companies who have both the experience of drilling in deep waters and the willingness to associate themselves with Israel, especially in light of Noble’s experience. With falling energy prices worldwide, the chance of a Noble-like operator popping out of nowhere is slim. This means that in its desire to avoid the creation of a monopoly, Israel is taking the risk that Leviathan, the world’s largest offshore gas discovery of the past decade, will not be developed for many years to come – if ever. The losers will first and foremost be the Israeli people who will lose not only billions of dollars in tax revenue and the main engine of growth of their economy but also the prospects of securing their energy supply for generations. The scenario is equally bad for Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority who are counting on Leviathan gas for their economic well-being and which have all signed letters of intent to buy Israeli gas despite local opposition from their respective Israel-hating Islamists. Europe will also be a casualty since a portion of Leviathan was aimed for two LNG terminals in Egypt from where it would have been shipped to European countries aspiring to become less dependent on Russia’s gas.

Other than the handful of lawyers who will earn millions litigating the dispute between Noble and the Israeli government in international courts, the biggest winner will be Cyprus. In December 2011 Noble announced the discovery of 7 tcf in a field northwest of Leviathan called Aphrodite (block 12). Other blocks have been opened for bids since attracting interest from a handful of large oil and gas companies including Total of France, Kogas of South Korea, ENI of Italy and Petronas of Malaysia. But with all eyes on Leviathan, Cyprus became an uninteresting side show. This may soon change. Cyprus may not be a paragon of regulatory stability and certainly not an investors’ haven and its tense relations with Turkey pose some geopolitical risk, but the fatigue from Israel’s energy shenanigans could bring about a shift from Israel to Cyprus as the new center of gravity in the East Mediterranean energy play.

There is no polite way of saying this. Israel’s latest decision is tantamount to nationalization of the kind seen in Argentina, Venezuela, Mexico and Russia. All of those governments sugarcoated their decision invoking the need to protect the public interest. The investment community and global oil industry got the message and wrote off those countries. With this miserable decision, Israel has just lodged itself into this notorious club. The price will be paid in spades – and sooner than most Israelis realize.

First published in 
Journal of Energy Security
 December 11, 2014.

Dr. Gal Luft is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) a Washington based think tank focused on energy security. He is a senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council America’s highest level extra governmental energy advisory committee and co-chairman of the Global Forum on Energy Security. He specializes in strategy, geopolitics, energy security, natural resources and technology innovation. Newsweek Magazine called him a “tireless and independent advocate of energy security,” the business magazine Poder called him “one of the most recognizable figures in modern energy and security issues,” and Esquire Magazine included him in its list of America’s Best and Brightest. Dr. Luft has published numerous studies and articles on security and energy issues in various newspapers and publications such as Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The American Interest, Commentary Magazine, Middle East Quarterly, LA Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. He is co-author of Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century (2009), Turning Oil into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice (2009) and Petropoly: The Collapse of America’s Energy Security Paradigm (2012). He is also author of Beer, Bacon and Bullets: Culture in Coalition Warfare from Gallipoli to Iraq. He appears frequently in the media and consults to various think tanks and news organizations worldwide. Dr. Luft testified before committees of the U.S. Congress, including Senate Foreign Relations, House International Relations, House Science and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He holds degrees in international relations, international economics and strategic studies and a doctorate in strategic studies from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS,) Johns Hopkins University. He is also a fellow at the Middle East Forum.

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Archival photo of Hon. Anthony A. Scarpino, Jr., AJSC

WHITE PLAINS, NY – Hon Anthony A. Scarpino, Jr., AJSC, is stepping down from the Westchester Surrogate Court. A replacement will be designated by Governor Andrew Cuomo. One of three names is presently in play. Judge Scarpino, Jr., will join the firm of DelBello Donnellan Weingarten Wise & Wiederkehr, LLP

More about the designee when his name is revealed.

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Off My Meds By Les Taha

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First published on Feb 9, 2013. By and courtesy of  YouTube.

Thank you and a tip of the hat to @manute117 for sharing this video with us.

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New York State Senate seal.

NYS Senator Greg Ball, representing the 40th Senate District will be concluding his term in office on December 31, 2014.

BREWSTER, NY — December 21, 2014 — Senator Greg Ball (Patterson – R, C, I), Chairman of the Senate Veterans, Homeland Security and Military Affairs Committee, issued the following statement regarding the assassination of NYPD officers Wenjian Liu and Rafael Ramos.

“My thoughts and prayers go out to the friends, families and all members of the New York City Police Department trying to keep their beloved city safe. Let me be blunt. Yesterday two members of the NYPD, serving in uniform to protect all of us, were executed in Brooklyn. As someone who is no longer constrained by political discourse let me be clear. In a matter of months this Mayor has taken the city back nearly 50 years. Today, our NYPD and other law enforcement and emergency responders have walking targets on their backs and are in grave danger. Mince no words. The Mayor is directly responsible for their safety or lack thereof. This Mayor brings all new meaning to ‘I didn’t know you could stack shit that high’. Don’t wait for him to act New York. Take peaceful and effective action now, and in the coming months, to hold him accountable. This man needs to go. Never forget,” asserted Senator Greg Ball.

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Charicature of a younger, better looking Publisher / Editor Hezi Aris.

The most recent gunshots to claim life were heard in Brooklyn, NY, this Sunday afternoon. NYPD Officers Wenjin Liu and Raphael Ramos were executed by Ismaaily Brinsley to avenge the death of Eric Garner of Staten Island, NY, and Michael Brown of Ferguson, MO. The point-blank shooting took place minutes before 3:00 p.m. without a word exchanged. The message of death was delivered by four or five bullets in total. After the assassination of Police Officers Liu and Ramos, Brinsley ran down a staircase of a nearby “G’ train station platform where he committed suicide by shooting himself in the head. The mantra that drove Brinsley from Baltimore, MD to Kings County (Brooklyn), was expressed on his Instagram account. “I’m Putting Wings on Pigs Today,” he wrote. He followed that statement with, “They Take 1 of Ours… Let’s Take 2 of Theirs.” He closed the message with, “This May Be My Final Post.”

Pointedly, the anger that seemed to consume Brinsley, besides his own personal issues, he had Saturday morning murdered his girlfriend, brought his hatred of the stereotypical white racist cop to kill Police Officers of Chinese and Hispanic descent in Brooklyn. Two members of one of the finest departments in the nation, innocent of the politics of racism in America, whose crime was to do the best they could to protect and defend residents of New York City because that was their calling. They, among so many others, both living and long deceased, have earned their place with honor and credibility. Society is too quick to judge the police as if every Police Officer was deficient in some way, held a racial component in his/her heart, and conducted their day in a corrupt manner. The truth is that if blame must be parceled, and it must, blame management! They make the rules, they create the culture, they are the ones who are corrupt, either because that is their intention, or because they do not know how to manage, or worse of all, they have permitted their office and responsibility to be managed by politicians who can wield greater influence than they. Can you name the politicians that ascribed their name to the issues that have fomented before their eyes all these years and most recently in 2014? I don’t recollect too many! Do you?

Exacerbating the crisis that has been permitted to divide Americans on various tectonic / fault lines are the people we too often elect to office. Before readers glaze and close this page, please note with all due respect, that I am not referring to Democrats or Republicans, Conservative, Greens, Independents, what have you. I am pointing at those politicians who thrive on the mistrust people have expressed of each other. Stereotypically our anger and distrust gains gravitas as our knowledge of others wanes. And our politicians are late to make pronouncements of their standing on one issue or another because they are loathe to find themselves on the wrong side of the political divide that is judged by and in the court of public opinion. Some wait out the clock long enough that the issue is of no consequence when they have figured it out; or society is ruminating on another issue, another concern that has many politicians to scurry behind the person with the apron strings drawn. Dinner is ready. People are on the menu. Yummy, yummy!

Legislation is presented that seems only to be as deficient as placing a Band-Aid on wounds so deep that many stitches will be required to close and permit the wound to heal. Instead, legislation that can at best claim an attempt to bring about resolution is introduced to the acclaim all those who would rather hide behind the author of the legislation than attempt to fully grasp the issues and ramifications that society cries be acknowledged. Even those who are crying to be heard are too often eclipsed by those who seize the opportunity to commandeer their issue(s) for their benefit; they have no interest for resolution.

It is quite simple; no matter the issue, discourse must be nurtured and promoted. Society must be given permission for discussion to take place. Those who must engage us are those whom we have elected to office. They must bring these issues to the forefront. They must manage issues that are deep seated; they must dispel the “right” from “wrong”; they must prove their perspective rather than opine about them.

Freedom and justice and respect are born to those who live to hold on to those goals with such passion that they realize that those same attributes they hope to maintain for themselves is by its very definition worthy to be shared among all who reside in America. Pie in the sky say some. If justice is not recognized by the law and legislation we write is further diminished by those who will malign the system in place by political prowess or backroom deals, they will have stolen your rights and mine while claiming they have slain the monster, but you and I realize they have won and we have lost. How could that be? We may not be paying enough attention. And we rarely make our opinions known. Why?

Killing men and women in blue is not a winning way. Death leads to more death. Kindness and respect leads to more kindness and respect. Pragmatism demands we understand the difference and make public that which betrays our moral compass.

Perhaps too many among us have forgotten to stand tall and straight when issues of importance come to light. Now we all know differently. There is no time to waste. The discussion must begin. Everyone must be heard. Talking points must not be repeated. The strength of concepts and thoughts must be judged on the merit of its expression and its ability to be instituted. We are bored by hearing the same concepts one-thousand plus times.

Before society can move forward, we must repudiate the killings we have accepted as part of our societal standard. That focus must not change the need to formulate and formalize a standard and a direction our nation can gravitate around. America cannot wait another year or five or ten. We may not be able accomplishing it all but we must begin now, and be grateful we have learned to at long last walk upright with pride knowing we have begun a journey worthy of us all.

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Mount Vernon City Seal in gold and maroon.

MOUNT VERNON, NY — December 19, 2014 – Mount Vernon is testing out its new red-light safety camera system with the installation of two red-light safety cameras. The cameras went operational on December 15th as part of a 30-day warning phase during which written notices will be mailed to the vehicle owner if the car is detected running a red light.

This new approach to traffic safety program will go live on January 15th when Red-light Safety Cameras will be activated at the following intersections:

· EB/WB E Lincoln AVE @ Darwood Place /Sheridan

Red Light Safety Camera installed in the City of Mount Vernon.

· NB/SB S Columbus AVE /SR22 @ E 3rd ST/MLK BLVD

· WB/EB/SB East Sanford BLVD @ South Fulton AVE

· EB/WB East Sanford BLVD @ Garden AVE
“This program puts a new law enforcement tool into the hands of our police officers. Red-light safety cameras will help us reduce the number of regrettable traffic collisions at our most dangerous intersections,” said Mayor Ernest D. Davis. “I anticipate that once motorists get used to the technology, they will react to the cameras in much the same way that they react to seeing an officer along the side of the road watching for speeders; they will slow down and stop in time to avoid running the red light.”

A red light violation occurs when the entire vehicle crosses the intersection’s line of demarcation after the traffic signal turns red. Technicians at American Traffic Solutions (ATS), oversee the review of violation images and event data being submitted to the Mount Vernon Police Department. A sworn law enforcement officer from the Mount Vernon Police Department conducts a final review to determine if a ticket and fine are warranted based on the evidence. This procedure will ensure that tickets are issued with full knowledge of local roadways and traffic patterns and laws.

“From a taxpayer’s point of view, cameras provide a cost-effective service because they don’t cost taxpayers a dime; only those who choose to break the law and put the safety of others at risk pay the fines that are used to fund the cameras, said Commissioner Gaylord Worrell of the Police Department’s Parking Bureau. Mount Vernon is attempting to enforce traffic laws at the most dangerous intersections, allowing police officers to be available for other patrol and crime prevention duties.

“We believe red-light safety cameras are a powerful deterrent to running red lights and reducing serious crashes, which is why Mount Vernon supports this program,” said Police Commissioner Terrance Raynor. “With their constant and reliable presence at intersections, photo-enforcement cameras effectively change driver behavior from recklessly running red lights to stopping at them for the benefit of themselves and others on the road. We will all be safer with these cameras.”

Beginning on January 15, 2015 motorists running red lights at intersections will be ticketed using the new technology. For additional information contact the Mount Vernon Parking Bureau at 914-665-2470.

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Jury Found Melvin Lowe Guilty of Conspiring with New York State Senator John Sampson to Defraud the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee

United States District Court for the Southern District of New York.

Preet Bharara, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

Preet Bharara, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, and Shantelle P. Kitchen, the Acting Special Agent in Charge of the New York Office of the Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigation (“IRS”), announced that a former consultant to the New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (“DSCC“), Melvin Lowe, was found guilty today in White Plains federal court of conspiring with New York State Senator John Sampson to defraud the DSCC of $100,000. Lowe was also found guilty of one count of wire fraud arising out of his scheme to defraud the DSCC; three counts of subscribing to false tax returns; three counts of failing to file tax returns; and one count of causing a bank employee to make a false report of a federally insured bank. Lowe was found guilty after a one-week trial before U.S. District Judge Vincent L. Briccetti.

Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara stated: “This conviction is another step in restoring the public’s trust in New York State politics. As the jury found, Lowe participated in a series of backroom deals in which the bridge of corruption extended between the world of elected officials and their complicit consultants. Consultants, like elected officials, need to be held accountable in order to clean up our political system.”

IRS-Criminal Investigation Acting Special Agent in Charge Shantelle P. Kitchen stated: “The public expects that politicians and those who work in the public arena be held to the same standards as they are, especially when it comes to matters of basic citizenship, like paying taxes, and applying for loans. This jury has held Mr. Lowe accountable to these standards.”

According to the Complaint and the Indictment filed in federal court and the evidence presented at trial:

Lowe was retained as a consultant by the DSCC after New York State Senator John Sampson was appointed as the Senate’s Democratic Conference Leader following the June 2009 “coup” that temporarily shifted the balance of power in the New York Senate from the Democrats to the Republicans. In early June 2010, Sampson asked Lowe to arrange for a covert payment of $20,000 to Michael Nieves, a Queens-based political operative who had previously worked for former New York State Senator Hiram Monserrate and who had helped engineer the resolution of the Senate coup that had brought Sampson to power. Lowe then arranged for a New Jersey-based political consultant to submit a false invoice to the DSCC for $100,000 in printing services. Sampson approved payment of the invoice and the DSCC sent $100,000 to the New Jersey-based consultant. Lowe instructed the consultant to send $20,000 of the proceeds to Nieves, $75,000 of the proceeds to Lowe’s consulting company and to keep $5,000 for himself. The jury heard evidence that Lowe and Senator Sampson had a close relationship of trust that included Lowe giving Sampson an envelope of cash.

Lowe received more than $2.1 million in consulting income from 2007 to 2012. He reported less than $25,000 in income in each of his returns for 2007 through 2009, which he did not file until late 2010. Lowe never filed returns for 2010 through 2012. He never made any payments toward his taxes for the years 2000 through 2012.

Lowe also caused an assistant manager of his bank to make a false statement to his mortgage lender regarding the balance in his checking account. When the mortgage lender sent his bank a Verification of Deposit form to verify Lowe’s claim that he had $65,000 in his checking account, Lowe caused the assistant manager to claim that Lowe’s account had a balance of more than $80,000. At that time, the balance in Lowe’s checking account was $2,156.

*     *     *

Lowe, 53, of Manhattan, was found guilty of one count of conspiracy, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison; one counts of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison; three counts of subscribing to false tax returns, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 3 years in prison; three counts of failing to file tax returns, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 1 year in prison; and one count of causing a bank employee to make a false statement in a report and statement of a federally insured bank, which carries a maximum sentence of 30 years in prison. The conspiracy, wire fraud and tax charges each carry a maximum fine of $250,000, while the false statement charge carries a maximum fine of $1 million. The statutory maximum sentences are prescribed by Congress and are provided here for informational purposes only, as any sentencing of the defendant would be determined by the Court.

Mr. Bharara praised the outstanding investigative work of the Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigation and the investigators from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.

This case is being handled by the Office’s White Plains Division. Assistant United States Attorneys Perry A. Carbone and James McMahon are in charge of the prosecution.

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Con Ed pipeline being installed in Mount Vernon as part of the upgrade to the gas transmission system in the city.

Mount Vernon City Seal in gold and maroon.

MOUNT VERNON, NY — December 18, 2015 – Residents along a section of 4^th Street will soon breathe a sigh of relief when Con Edison starts repaving streets after installing sections of a new pipeline just in time for the Christmas holiday.

“We recently met with Con Ed officials to discuss the swift completion of the project,” said Mayor Ernest D. Davis. “One of our main concerns was disruption in areas that were first excavated. Those streets are going to be restored this weekend.”

Con Ed will be paving curb to curb after milling and grading streets since gas pipe installation has been completed in the Phase 1 area of the city. Paving is scheduled for Saturday, December 20. Motorists are urged to find alternate parking until streets are reopened. The following streets that have been excavated from the start of the project are included:

• 4th Street between 7th and 9th avenues
• 9th Avenue between 4th and 5th streets
• 5th Street between 9th Avenue and Mundy Lane

Upgrading of the gas transmissions system in the Mount Vernon area continues. Excavation is ongoing as Con Ed proceeds to install gas transmission pipe on East 4th Street between Union and Nuber avenues. Customers are reminded that service will not be interrupted during work.

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